Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections

TW Russell; N Golding; J Hellewell; S Abbott; L Wright; CAB Pearson; K van Zandvoort; CI Jarvis; H Gibbs; Y Liu; RM Eggo; WJ Edmunds; AJ Kucharski; AK Deol; CJ Villabona-Arenas; T Jombart; K O’Reilly; JD Munday; SR Meakin; R Lowe; A Gimma; A Endo; ES Nightingale; G Medley; AM Foss; GM Knight; K Prem; S Hué; C Diamond; JW Rudge; KE Atkins; M Auzenbergs; S Flasche; RMGJ Houben; BJ Quilty; P Klepac; M Quaife; S Funk; QJ Leclerc; JC Emery; M Jit; D Simons; NI Bosse; SR Procter; FY Sun; S Clifford; K Sherratt; A Rosello; NG Davies; O Brady; DC Tully; GR Gore-Langton

Journal article

Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections

TW Russell, N Golding, J Hellewell, S Abbott, L Wright, CAB Pearson, K van Zandvoort, CI Jarvis, H Gibbs, Y Liu, RM Eggo, WJ Edmunds, AJ Kucharski, AK Deol, CJ Villabona-Arenas, T Jombart, K O’Reilly, JD Munday, SR Meakin, R Lowe Show all

BMC Medicine | BMC | Published : 2020

DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01790-9

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Abstract

Background: Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures. Estimating case ascertainment over time allows for accurate estimates of specific outcomes such as seroprevalence, which is essential for planning control measures. Methods: Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we..

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Nicholas Golding Author

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Funding Acknowledgements

The following funding sources are acknowledged as providing funding for the named authors. This research was partly funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-003174: YL). DFID/Wellcome Trust (Epidemic Preparedness Coronavirus research programme 221303/Z/20/Z: KvZ). Elrha R2HC/UK DFID/Wellcome Trust/This research was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the UK Department of Health and Social Care (KvZ). This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose (101003688: WJE, YL). This research was partly funded by the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) project 'RECAP' managed through RCUK and ESRC (ES/P010873/1: CIJ). HDR UK (MR/S003975/1: RME). NIHR (16/137/109: YL). UK DHSC/UK Aid/NIHR (ITCRZ 03010: HPG). UK MRC (MC_PC_19065: RME, WJE, YL). Wellcome Trust (206250/Z/17/Z: AJK, TWR; 210758/Z/18/Z: JH, SA). NG was partially funded by an ARC DECRA fellowship (DE180100635).The following funding sources are acknowledged as providing funding for the working group authors. Alan Turing Institute (AE). BBSRC LIDP (BB/M009513/1: DS). This research was partly funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-001754: MQ; INV-003174: KP, MJ; NTD Modelling Consortium OPP1184344: CABP, GM; OPP1180644: SRP; OPP1183986: ESN; OPP1191821: KO'R, MA). DFID/Wellcome Trust (Epidemic Preparedness Coronavirus research programme 221303/Z/20/Z: CABP). DTRA (HDTRA1-18-1-0051: JWR). ERC Starting Grant (#757688: CJVA, KEA; #757699: JCE, RMGJH; 757699: MQ). This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme -project EpiPose (101003688: KP, MJ, PK). This research was partly funded by the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) project 'RECAP' managed through RCUK and ESRC (ES/P010873/1: AG, TJ). Nakajima Foundation (AE). This research was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the UK Department of Health and Social Care (16/136/46: BJQ; 16/137/109: BJQ, CD, FYS, MJ; Health Protection Research Unit for Immunisation NIHR200929: NGD; Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling Methodology HPRU-2012-10096: TJ; NIHR200929: MJ; PR-OD-1017-20002: AR). Royal Society (Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship: RL; RP\EA\180004: PK). UK MRC (LID DTP MR/N013638/1: GRGL, QJL; MC_PC_19065: AG, NGD, SC, TJ; MR/P014658/1: GMK). Authors of this research receive funding from UK Public Health Rapid Support Team funded by the UK Department of Health and Social Care (TJ). Wellcome Trust (206471/Z/17/Z: OJB; 208812/Z/17/Z: SC, SFlasche; 210758/Z/18/Z: JDM, KS, NIB, SFunk, SRM). No funding (AKD, AMF, DCT, SH).Defence Science and Technology Laboratory High Performance Computing support has been funded by the Ministry of Defence Chief Scientific Advisor.